Description: The primary focus of this 1997 presentation from the 32nd Actuarial Research Conference is the adaptation of the representative scenario method such that the distribution of the primary rates used for product pricing, are consistent, regardless of the initial random number seed. A preliminary question is how many stochastically generated scenarios are required for consistency. This presentation looks at the implications of: the use of antithetic random normal deviates upon the scenario process, ways of modifying the candidate list, and the choice function within the representative scenario process.

Description: The evolving specialty pharmacy environment has created difficulties for actuaries pricing and forecasting pharmacy coverage. Unpredictable specialty pharmacy trends have increased insurers' earnings volatility and affected members' health care affordability. The presenters will highlight the current specialty drug development pipeline and explore specialty pharmacy drug trend management strategies. They will also provide concepts to help manage the coming wave of gene and cell therapies.

Description: 1994 SOA Spring Meeting, Orlando. This session focused on the possible impacts of a return to higher interest rates and explored risk management strategies that may be appropriate.

Description: Interest rates steadily declining ever since the Volcker Fed tackled inflation in the early eighties. Ten years of stimulating monetary policy brought new lows. We should have braced ourselves for a return to neutrality, but that concept remains elusive. We will explore structural issues that have brought rates to these low levels and the potential impacts on the insurance business.